Williams Sonoma is known for their expertise in exquisite kitchen-wares and home furnishings. But now, the popular chain is offering healthy recipes and tips on how to use their products to keep you on the right track for healthy living. With the country in such uncertain times, your health is extremely important, and Williams Sonoma wants to help.
The Healthiest Cookware Ever
Williams Sonoma’s nonstick cookware is all rigorously tested and PFOA free; so that you can cook healthy recipes worry-free. Learn More Here >>
Make Meal Prep Easy
Williams Sonoma’s food storage essentials are necessary for meal prepping. They are #fridgegoals. Learn More Here >>
How to Make a Vegan Cauliflower Tumeric Soup
Turmeric has many scientifically-proven health benefits, such as the potential to prevent heart disease, Alzheimer’s and cancer. It’s a potent anti-inflammatory and antioxidant and may also help improve symptoms of depression and arthritis. Learn how to make a delicious vegan cauliflower tumeric soup using Williams Sonoma products. Watch Here >>
Ever fork out ten bucks for a raffle and have some old lady beat you after only investing a quarter? I have and it was ridiculously annoying. Imagine seeing a bucket filled almost entirely with your name deliver the only ticket not yours. Unlikely, right? After all, percentages and randomness determine a raffle, right? WRONG! Certain factors skew the randomness, making the conventional raffle more of a strategy game than a game of chance. Here are some tricks on how to win that basket raffle, explained by mathematics.
Buying Multiple Tickets
But, what if you have multiple tickets? How would your strategy change? What if the bowls are occluded and you can’t see how many entries were in each drawing (or there were sufficiently many that you could not estimate?)
Is it better to put all your eggs (tickets) into one basket (drawing), or distribute them over all the drawings?
Again, let’s make the assumption that you are agnostic as to the prize you win (because, if you only cared about one, and only one, of the prizes you would still put all your tickets into that drawing).
The question comes down to the tradeoff: Does having more ‘skin in the game’ (multiple chances in one drawing), outweigh having multiple attempts at winning prize. Let’s take a look.
Let’s assume there are N tickets in the lottery before you place in your tickets.
Let’s assume there are d parallel drawings (competitions to enter).
Let’s assume that you have t tickets to distribute.
As we have no other information to go on, let’s assume that the existing entries have been uniformly distributed through the drawings. So, before you determine what to do, the N tickets have been spread through the d bowls so that each bowl holds N/d tickets.
Patience Is the Key to Success
Sometimes when the tickets are being drawn, a person merely spins the tickets around and picks one off the top. This inefficient mixing method doesn’t actually mix the tickets at all. It just rotates the tickets in the bucket a few times, which makes whichever one on top more likely to be drawn. So if you’re only going to buy a ticket or two, you might want to wait towards the end of the selling period. You’ll be that much more likely to win the raffle if this is the case.
All eggs in one basket strategy
If you place all t of your tickets into one drawing, the probability of you winning is:
This is a simple calcuation. Before you added your tickets, there were N/d tickets in the bowl. You’ve just added t more, so now the total number of tickets in the bowl is t+(N/d). Out of these, t tickets will cause you to win the prize.
Let’s put some real numbers in there. Let’s imagine there are 1,000 other tickets out there (N=1,000), and that there are five raffles (d=5), and that you have five tickets (t=5).
If you place all your tickets in the same bowl, your chance of winning is 5/(5+(1000/5)) = 5/205 ≈ 2.439%
If you had ten tickets, your odds increase to 10/(10+(1000/5)) = 10/210 ≈ 4.762%, not quite double.
Spread the Love / Disperse Your Resources Strategy
Just like in the above method, inefficient mixing methods can very easily skew randomness. So what if the person drawing the tickets doesn’t thoroughly mix and simply moves clumps around? In that case, your huge stack of tickets might all be on the very bottom. In order to avoid this, try buying periodically throughout the buying window. That way, you know you’ll always have a chance in every raffle regardless of how the tickets are mixed.
Now let’s see what happens if we distribute our tickets through all the drawings.
To calculate the probability of at least one win, we need to find the probability of losing every single drawing and subtract this from 1 (certainty). We need to do this because, with a ‘spread the love’ strategy it’s possible to win more than one of the prizes.
If you have t tickets then distributing these evenly you will be putting t/d additional tickets in each bin which, before you placed in your tickets, held N/d tickets.
You lose a drawing if your ticket is not selected, and this happens N/d times out of (N/d + t/d) times. There are the total of d drawings, so we multiply these probabilities together (logical AND), and this is the dth power:
Let’s run the same values from the example above: N=1,000; d=5; t=5
If we place one ticket in each of the five bowls, the odds of winning at least one prize is:
1-(1000/(5+1000))5 = 1-(1000/1005)5 ≈ 2.463%
This is a slightly higher chance than putting all the tickets in one drawing at 2.439% (plus there is also the chance of winning more than one prize!)
In the ten ticket example, if you place two tickets in each of the drawings: N=1,000; d=5; t=10
*Assuming that the other tickets are fairly evenly distributed.
With a ‘spread the love’ strategy, not only are your chances of winning anything better, you also stand a chance of winning more than one prize.
Here is the data in graph format. Below are two curves showing the percentage chance of winning based on the two strategies. For both, the number of other tickets is kept constant at 1,000 and the number of parallel raffles is also kept at five. You can see that the orange line (spreading the love) is always higher than the blue line (putting all tickets in one drawing). Also, remember that by spreading your tickets out there is a chance that you may win more than one prize!
Pick Your Battles
Obviously, a bucket filled to the brim with tickets is going to provide little opportunity for success. If the tickets sold strongly outweigh the cost of the basket, then the raffle was a success for those hosting it, making it a lost cause for you. It’s just like playing the lottery. You’re more likely to spend the total jackpot before you win it, so the practicality in playing is greatly diminished. On the other hand, the cause might make buying a ticket worth it, or maybe just the thrill of gambling. If you want to be a good person or have a good time with it, just try dispersing.
I’ve been around for many raffles in which someone just isn’t there to claim the prize. Don’t expect the drawing to occur before you go. In reality, those tickets aren’t being drawn until the very last minute in most cases. If you’re going to put out the money, at least give yourself a chance to win the raffle.
This week has turned out to be a major failure for Steve Harvey (and its not even Wednesday yet).
Not too long after NBC announced the cancellation of The Steve Harvey Show in favor of Kelly Clarkson’s new pilot, news broke that Harvey has also lost his job as host of NBC’s Little Big Shots, a variety show that features talented young kids.
According to People, NBC is replacing Harvey as host on Little Big Shots with actor/comedian Melissa McCarthy.
“Melissa’s just an incredible performer and incredible comedian,” NBC’s co-chairman of entertainment Paul Telegdy said in a statement, People reports, adding that as a 48-year-old mother of two, McCarthy “will bring a completely fresh perspective to it.”
In that sense, Harvey may be past his prime at age 62.
But others have reported that NBC deciding to drop Harvey’s show and the decision to remove him as host of Little Big Shots may have less to do with “fresh perspective” and more to do with a feud between NBCUniversal and Endeavor’s IMG Original Content, the company that produces Harvey’s show.
After Harvey struck a deal with IMG, NBC lost its ownership stakes in the talk show. Needless to say, execs at NBC were not happy about that.
Regardless of who the new host will be, the new iteration of Little Big Shots will air Sunday nights at 8 p.m., sometime after the football season.
Additionally, according to People, Harvey’s producers are working on maybe getting another network to pick up the talk show.
And of course, for those still wanting to still see more of Steve Harvey, he still holds his hosting gig on Family Feud.
‐ Over 95% of seniors are paying more than $5,000 per year out of pocket on medical expenses – but a new Medicare solution is changing that.
Are you aware that your deductibles and co-pays could be covered by Medicare with a supplemental plan? These special plans are only available to those in qualified zip codes in .
For a long time, the only way to find out about these plans was to call each individual insurance company in , and then you would have to decide from there which plan to enroll in. This means calling dozens of different companies. Now all this work is not needed. Thanks to this innovative Medicare solution, you can view all the available Medicare supplement plans in one place online, and choose for yourself which one to enroll in.
What exactly do you need to do? Here is one easy rule to follow.
You have to compare plans. Don’t even consider enrolling in a Medicare Supplement plan without doing this first. Looking at recent studies of Medicare subscribers in America, we just couldn’t believe how many people were paying for a Medicare Supplement plan that didn’t provide them with full coverage. With this new Medicare solution, comparing plans is a breeze. Their network of top insurance companies, and 124,000 agents helps seniors save more money on their medical expenses.
Seniors in America don’t always realize that they could be saving up to 100% per year on their medical expenses by enrolling in a good Medicare Supplement plan. This is because the information hasn’t been readily available until now, and also because many seniors get pushed into Medicare Supplement plans that don’t actually provide good coverage. Fortunately, a lot of smart seniors out there figured out how to enroll in the right plan using this free service to find the perfect plan.
It’s really no wonder that with so many seniors saving money on their medical expenses, this new service is gaining momentum. They are an efficient source that tries to give consumers access to the Medicare Supplement plans that have the highest coverage at the lowest prices.
Follow These Steps to Save Money:
Simply check your ZIP code below.
Answer some basic health information and then view all of your available Medicare Supplement plans and coverages.
Nowadays, our credit score is referenced for almost everything.
Numerous banks now print credit scores on your month to month financial
record. Americans progressively see how their score is ascertained and
how to enhance it. Notwithstanding, only on the grounds that you have a
decent FICO rating doesn’t mean you will be sanctioned for credit. Banks
chooses who they will support and who they will dismiss. Regardless of
what the scoring specialists like to infer, just knowing your score is
insufficient to knowing your chances of getting a loan. Here are six
reasons why you can have a fantastic score, yet at the same time get
1. What Credit Score Are They Using, Anyway?
You regularly hear individuals discuss their “credit score,” as
though they just had one score. There are several scores in the business
sector. On the other hand, there are different forms of the
nonexclusive FICO score (the most generally utilized is Version 8).
There are likewise FICO scores particularly for autos and bankcards. The
score relies on the information from the credit agency. Also, there are
three credit departments.
The VantageScore, a different option for FICO, has become
progressively famous. Most sites that give a free financial assessment
are really giving the VantageScore.
Anyway, it deteriorates. Most banks don’t settle on their choice
utilizing one of these nonexclusive scores. Rather, they have a group of
statisticians that help them assemble custom application scores.
Frequently, every item and securing channel has its own particular
score. Case in point, there could be a credit score for “applications
from the web for money back Mastercards.” Risk administrators at banks
would dependably need to demonstrate that their custom scorecards were
superior to the nonexclusive adaptations.
Banks have a score cutoff. On the off chance that you are one point
underneath that cutoff, you will be dismisses. Only on the grounds that
you have a decent score from one of the free destinations does not mean
you will have a decent score on the bank’s custom score. That is the
reason your free score ought to be viewed as an aide only. It will help
you comprehend in the event that you for the most part have great
credit, yet it is no certification you’ll be sanction.
2. Least Income And A Job
When you seek credit, you will be finishing an application. The
greater part of that application information is utilized as a part of
the credit score. It can be a variable in the custom score. Then again,
it can be utilized for a lethal cutoff, which implies an explanation
behind programmed dismissal.
An ordinary deadly cutoff identifies with pay and livelihood.
Numerous loan specialists will dismiss you in the event that you are
unemployed. Furthermore, they may dismiss you if your salary is
underneath the base situated by the loan specialist. Regardless of the
fact that you are just $1 shy of the base, you could be dismisses,
paying little respect to your score.
3. Obligation Burden
Banks and Mastercard organizations need to know whether you can stand
to set aside a few minutes. A commonplace instrument used by banks is
an obligation load. All in all, banks will take a gander at the
aggregate regularly scheduled installments on your credit report. That
would incorporate your home loan installment, auto installment, charge
card installments and some other regularly scheduled installments. You
would then divide that regularly scheduled installment by your gross
compensation. As a rule, if that figure is over half, you will no doubt
be dismisses. In the event that it is underneath 40%, you have a decent
risk of approbation.
Be that as it may, each bank sets their own principle. They can
choose what obligation to incorporate in the installment. They can
likewise choose if unused charge cards ought to be incorporated or
barred. A few banks have both front-end (barring home loan) and back-end
(counting home loan) proportions.
Also, banks can change this proportion over the long run, contingent on the execution of their portfolios.
4. Major Derogatory Items
Most negative data vanishes from your credit report in 7 years. Also,
the more established the item, the less effect it has on your score. Be
that as it may, a few loan specialists have particular principles. Case
in point, a moneylender may choose to reject anybody with an earlier
liquidation, regardless of the possibility that it was six years prior.
Different loan specialists may dismiss anybody with a gathering thing,
or a missed installment in the most recent 12 months.
Along these lines, despite the fact that your score may have
recuperated, a few banks may in any case need to dodge you. At the end
of the day, they accept that this negative data is more critical than
the nonexclusive score does.
5. Fast Acceleration Of Debt
Moneylenders need to stay away from clients who are heading towards
insolvency. Attempting to assemble a model that distinguishes potential
insolvencies ahead of time is an enormous piece of the logical work
finished by danger chiefs. The most well-known pointer of somebody
attempting to tackle more obligation is a credit request, which is
incorporated in FICO and VantageScores. In any case, a bank or charge
card organization may need to have significantly harder principles. Case
in point, they could dismiss you in the event that you sought credit
more than five times in the most recent six months, paying little
respect to your score.
Likewise, they could attempt to gauge how rapidly your aggregate
obligation has expanded. In the event that they see quick quickening in
the red, you could be dismisses.
6. You Just Have Too Much Debt
A few banks get anxious at specific levels of obligation. Regardless
of the fact that you have a superb FICO rating and a magnificent
obligation load, they would prefer not to add to the unsecured
obligation offset. This approach is regularly called the Maximum
Unsecured Exposure guideline, and it puts a top on the aggregate sum the
banks are willing to loan.
All in all, What Should I Do Now?
FICO ratings used to live in a black box. Presently we have a
considerable measure more data. Simply recollect that the financial
assessment reach is considerably more essential than the real number. On
the off chance that you are over 750 on either FICO or your
VantageScore, you are profoundly prone to do well on any custom score.
On the off chance that your score is beneath 600, you are exceptionally
liable to be turned away. Nonetheless, fixating on ten focuses is not